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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."